Taiwan
Current trend: Holding · Category: World · Last updated: July 30, 2026
Current situation
Military and diplomatic tensions remain elevated while economic and security ties with the U.S. continue. China shows a consistent tendency to display military might when it feels Taiwan expresses independence.
Why we're watching
Taiwan sits at the center of semiconductor production and U.S.-China relations. Its declared independence has been a sore spot for mainland Chinese, and a military campaign by China to take Taiwan is considered one of the world's highest-risk events.
What to watch for next
Military exercises, Political developments, Diplomatic breakthroughs
Signal history
- 2026-07-30 — China puts the ‘squeeze’ on Taiwan with new patrols While China regularly patrols the Taiwan Strait - separating coastal China from the main island of Taiwan – this marks the first time the patrols have moved east of Taiwan in such quick succession.
- 2026-07-24 — PLA conducts live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait The drill comes days after the Taiwanese leader said Taiwan was “not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China" as Beijing continues to show aggression after perceived sleights by Taiwan.
- 2026-07-16 — Taiwan and US to jointly produce drone Suggests continued independence support (at least stated) by the U.S.