Inflation
Current trend: Holding · Category: Money · Last updated: August 12, 2026
Current situation
Inflation slowed in June and held steady in July. Producer-level inflation (not just consumer-facing) has also been moderating. Hostilities in the Middle East have triggered another jump in oil prices, which will feed into higher gas prices at the pump. Those costs tend to lead to increases in other consumer products, unless the rise in oil is reversed quickly. More evidence is emerging that companies producing everyday products are raising prices, a direct line between the war and higher prices for consumers.
Why we're watching
Inflation erodes purchasing power and makes people feel poorer. It can be measured a number of different ways, with the bottom line being what people feel in their wallets.
What to watch for next
September 11 CPI report, Producer price report, Company announcements on price strategy
Signal history
- 2026-08-12 — Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July The July CPI report shows prices moderating across a range of goods and services. This may take the urgency out of an imminent interest rate hike. **Bottom line, the energy-fueled burst earlier in the year is easing, though prices remain subject to constantly changing conditions in the Middle East.**
- 2026-08-07 — Warren Presses Trump Administration on Inflation-Data Changes Don't get too excited about reports of lower inflation. Sen. Elizabeth Warren asked the Commerce Department for details on upcoming changes to a major inflation index. The planned changes are expected to shave about two-tenths of a percentage point off the inflation rate.
- 2026-08-01 — Iran War Pushes Companies to Raise Prices on Beer, Paint, Fries and More The continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to hit Americans’ wallets far beyond the pump. Companies say they are raising prices on products ranging from french fries and beer to paint and packaging to offset their own rising commodity and freight costs.
- 2026-07-31 — Fed's favored inflation gauge showed prices pulled back in June The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index declined 0.1% on a monthly basis. Federal Reserve policymakers are focused on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%.
- 2026-07-26 — The 'rockets and feathers' effect Consumers feel "rockets", because the cost of food zoomed up in the aftermath of the pandemic. "Feathers", because once prices rise, they're slow to come down.
- 2026-07-20 — Inflation is broadening out Measure of the breadth of high inflation remains above the average over 1990-2019, when inflation averaged roughly 2%, especially on a weighted basis, but well below the pandemic peak.
- 2026-07-14 — The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.4 percent in June A lower-than-expected reading showed the largest negative month-over-month change in 5 years
- 2026-03-16 — Oil price spike triggers increase in gasoline costs Energy costs are a significant input
- 2026-02-23 — Trump bumps tariffs to 15% Could increase prices on certain items
Related briefings
- The rise of funflation
- Wall Street booms as consumer confidence busts
- Inflation is squeezing the buying power of Americans
- Parents are increasingly supporting their kids into adulthood (2026-08-14)
- Inflation might be slowing (finally) (2026-08-14)
- Americans are buying fewer groceries as prices rise (2026-07-21)