Education

Education

Current trend: Holding · Category: People · Last updated: September 9, 2026

Current situation

Student achievement has yet to fully recover from pandemic-era disruptions while debates over school choice, curriculum, funding, and postsecondary pathways continue across the country. There is a distinct red-state, blue-state difference in approaches to the issues, particularly regarding homeschooling and potential bias in higher education. With more students (and parents) focused on [trade schools](https://nextgennews.media/watchlist/college-vs-skilled-trades) as a viable path toward a more stable and reliable income, more colleges (especially private ones) may struggle in the years ahead. The recent problems at mid-tier universities like Syracuse are a perfect case study for what is coming down the pike for many of these schools. For younger children, there is a growing movement toward home schooling, to the angst of teachers unions. In the U.S., there are more than three million students being schooled at home, about twice as many as in Catholic schools. According to a [recent review](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0161956X.2025.2605900), fifteen of 24 studies of academic achievement reported positive outcomes for home-school students compared with institutionally schooled students. Sixteen of 25 studies on social and emotional development found positive outcomes for the home educated. Educators and administrators need to change *something*. A major new study of "rich" countries just showed another drastic drop in test scores, particularly in reading. In the U.S., reading scores just dropped to a 25-year low as schools, parents, and students are using AI to make life easier....which means less critical thinking, writing, and reading skills.

Why we're watching

Education influences workforce quality, productivity, income mobility, and long-term economic growth. The relaxation of many educational standards during Covid has resulted in poor grades and lifelong impact on students. School choice has become a hot issue as a result.

What to watch for next

Student achievement trends, School choice legislation, Education funding, Workforce outcomes, Curriculum reforms

Signal history

  • 2026-09-09 — American students earned their lowest math and reading scores in more than two decades on an international exam that tests 15-year-olds’ knowledge of core subjects. A 14-point decline in reading scores since 2022 comes as Americans’ satisfaction with K-12 education also fell to a new low, with adults doubting schools’ ability to prepare students for the future. The decline in test scores wasn't just in reading, but that's where some of the steepest declines were, and it was spread across "rich" countries, not just the U.S. One of the biggest culprits being blamed for the fall is the rise of AI. In many countries, AI is being used to make life easier for students. In many Asian countries, however, it is used to make students think more critically. This should be a wake-up call for educators and administrators, but education is notoriously slow in adapting to new technologies.
  • 2026-09-08 — As of this summer, more than two-thirds of U.S. states have enacted legislation or policies requiring school districts to restrict phone use in schools. A study of nearly 5,000 schools nationwide that lock student phones in Yondr pouches found them to be an effective way to curb student phone use. However, in schools that had implemented phone bans for three years, there was close to no change in test scores or classroom attention. Instead of being distracted by phones, students were distracted by their friends. From a mental health perspective, phone bans have been a success across most studies and time frames. The first year after a school institutes a phone ban is often rough, as students act up more. It takes 2-3 years before the benefits are usually seen, but there has been a disappointingly small positive impact on test scores and disciplinary actions.
  • 2026-08-31 — Syracuse is facing an enrollment shortfall that has led to a budget deficit as international enrollment fell by half. Syracuse took on nearly half a billion dollars in debt in 2025 to build new dormitories near its main campus to try to reverse the decline. All-in costs at the school are near $100,000 per year, so it has been forced to dig into a modest endowment to fund tuition breaks and pay the bills. Syracuse is not alone. Many mid-tier universities are struggling with trying to keep up with top-tier colleges while keeping tuition costs from spiraling more than they already have. Many of these schools are being forced to trim the number of offered programs and trim staff. This trend shows no sign of reversing.
  • 2026-08-21 — College enrollments are forecast to drop 13% by 2041, but it's focused mostly on lesser-desired colleges. Highly sought-after colleges will likely face less of a challenge in attracting students. As students and parents become more skeptical of the cost/benefit of a college degree, there will be more demand for the best colleges. As the population of 18-year-olds shrinks, there will be fewer students competing for enrollment, but ironically that could make it harder to get into the best schools. Demographic trends, in the U.S. and many parts of the developed world, are skewing older. That's putting a strain on safety net programs, with fewer young people working to support the elderly. College admissions will be affected by this drastically, as fewer students enroll. We will likely see a continued rise in the shuttering of 2nd- and 3rd-tier universities.
  • 2026-08-13 — Between falling birth rates, net out-migration, and the aftermath of COVID-19, K-12 enrollment has dropped 8% since 2015 and is expected to continue declining. Fewer younger students will impact schools and taxes, potentially leading to economic distress and less support for retired persons. It could also cost the state legislative representation. The state is not alone in its shrinking population, but it does tend to be a leading indicator.
  • 2026-08-12 — University of Michigan Drops First-Semester Grades to ‘Curb Mental Health Crisis’ First-semester freshmen will get a pass or no-credit grading system beginning next fall, designed to address mental health challenges among young adults. **Bottom line, this is the latest in a string of universities that have gone to pass-or-fail, at least for some students, as they try to address the pressures that may be triggering mental health issues.**
  • 2026-08-11 — Elite colleges are returning to the SAT and ACT All eight Ivy League universities have either moved away from test-optional policies or plan to do so, reversing trends prompted by COVID shutdowns. While research is mixed, many are finding that test scores are more predictive of academic preparation than high school grades. **Bottom line, the trend back toward SAT and ACT requirements is likely to gain steam after these moves by the Ivy colleges and prompting by the Trump administration.**
  • 2026-08-04 — The Struggling Colleges Raiding Their Endowments to Pay the Bills Struggling private colleges are increasingly tapping restricted donor endowments to cover day-to-day operating expenses. With enrollment down and expenses up, some colleges are accused of misappropriating funds just to keep their lights on.
  • 2026-08-02 — Hegseth’s ‘gold standard’ college exam tests middle-school math The college entrance exam that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth hailed as the nation's new "gold standard," is instead seeing its heaviest use as a remedial high school graduation test. In Florida, the first state to broadly embrace the exam, the Classic Learning Test has become less a college admissions test than a graduation alternative for struggling students.
  • 2026-07-21 — Special educators oppose Education Department breakup According to some, moving special education functions out of the U.S. Department of Education would be detrimental to students with disabilities because it would cause disparities in services across the states and reduce accountability measures.

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