Crime Trends
Current trend: Fading · Category: People · Last updated: August 20, 2026
Current situation
Violent crime has eased nationally while property crime remains mixed. The U.S. is on track to record the lowest number of homicides since the pandemic. Nobody is really sure why. Shoplifting remains high as consumers battle high inflation and uncertain job prospects.
Why we're watching
Crime affects migration (and immigration), housing prices and demand, business investment and public confidence. As many major cities experienced rising crime into 2022, residents left for suburbs. Crime trends have been trending lower, which may reverse some of those trends.
What to watch for next
FBI crime reports, Policing policy, Local government reforms
Signal history
- 2026-08-20 — The murder rate in 2025 was 4.1 murders and non-negligent manslaughters per 100,000 Americans, according to the FBI. That's near a record low. The population-adjusted rate of aggravated assaults was still higher than in the early 2010s. So was the rate of rapes. The robbery rate was the lowest since 1966, though, while murder, the most accurately recorded of violent crimes, truly was near record lows in 2025. Crime statistics are notoriously bad. Different departments have different definitions, and in recent years, the statistics have been manipulated for political reasons. Still, the most widely believed stats show that most crime, especially violent crime, has decreased significantly. The reason? Nobody really knows (and correlation does not equal causation) but the strongest argument seems to be simply that the population has fewer men aged 15-34.
- 2026-08-12 — Violent crime keeps falling in biggest U.S. cities A Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) analysis found homicides down 18% among 30 reporting cities in the first half of 2026. crime has fallen across cities with different political leadership, policing strategies, economic conditions and levels of federal involvement. **Bottom line, crime (especially violent crime) has been falling for 4 years, and nobody really knows why. **
- 2026-07-23 — US on track to have historically low number of homicides in 2026 The broadly positive changes are exceeding expectations, improving on baseline crime rates from before 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought historic surges in violence.
- 2026-07-22 — More Americans report shoplifting as inflation climbs Thirty percent of Americans say they've shoplifted this year, up from 24% in 2024, with many citing financial strain tied to inflation.
- 2026-07-21 — Police say Flock cameras help solve crimes aw enforcement agencies in the U.S. use AI-powered cameras to scan billions of vehicles each month, often without drivers ever realizing.
- 2026-07-20 — Global Prison Population Hits 11.6 Million Overcrowding continues to blight prison systems globally, particularly in Africa and the Americas. While men are more likely to be imprisoned, women face a higher risk of pre- trial detention in Africa and Oceania.
- 2026-07-16 — CNBC's 10 worst states to live in for 2026 Tennessee ranked as the worst for 2026
- 2026-07-16 — Data Centers to Add Billions in Power Costs in 13 States Datacenter buildout continues to be a concern for everyday citizen utility costs.