Climate Risk
Current trend: Holding · Category: Environment · Last updated: August 29, 2026
Current situation
While individual weather events vary from year to year, climate risk extends beyond environmental concerns. It influences insurance costs, food production, water availability, property values, supply chains, public health, and government spending. It is becoming an increasingly important long-term planning issue rather than a short-term weather story. We are seeing this unfold in real time with the latest European heat wave.
Why we're watching
Climate-related risks are affecting insurance costs, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and government spending. The issues revolve around how climate-related events (outside of normal weather patterns and trends) alter economic costs and public policy.
What to watch for next
Major hurricanes, Wildfires, Droughts, Flooding, Water levels, Insurance market changes, Climate legislation, Adaptive infrastructure investments
Signal history
- 2026-08-29 — Around the world, ice sitting on mountains is melting or breaking off quickly. Melting ice has formed new lakes in the Himalayas, meltwater from the massive Mendenhall Glacier has become an annual threat in Alaska, and a piece of a glacier broke apart in the Swiss Alps, setting off a landslide. Scientists say a number of factors are contributing to these events, but they agree that the rise in global temperatures is making the ice and frozen soil on top of mountains unstable and prone to disasters. We should be critical whenever an article says "scientists say," or "the consensus is..." because experts can be wrong, and there is no such thing as consensus when it comes to true science. This particular article, and others similar to it, neglect to note that ice is *growing* in other parts of the globe, such as the Arctic. That does not mean climate change is not real, only that it is a complicated and nuanced topic, and there is no consensus on what is happening or how to mitigate it. The most successful attempts to address the implications are those geared toward adaptation and early warning systems.
- 2026-08-25 — Europe, the U.K. and Canada are walking back their environmental regulations. Canada dismantled an unpopular consumer carbon tax and is backing new oil-and-gas infrastructure. The continent was the leader of climate action. But plans to transition away from fossil fuels are running up against concerns that the policies are stifling industry by pushing up energy prices and angering populations that are more concerned with immediate needs. Europe struggled for over a decade while the U.S. grew, in part because of cheap energy, while Europe was stifled with aggressive regulations and a pulling back of clean energy like nuclear. Now that most countries in Europe have recognized they need less reliance on Russian energy, they are loosening regulations in hopes of getting cheaper energy and spurring economic growth.
- 2026-08-11 — US breaks its record for hottest month ever The NOAA says July averaged 76.89 degrees Fahrenheit across the Lower 48 states, eclipsing July 1936. Records go back to 1895. The biggest driver of the heat was nighttime lows that smashed the old mark, a sign of human-caused climate change according to scientists. Some argue the high temps are not man-made climate change, but urban sprawl among other factors. The widespread high temps argue against that take, however. **Bottom line, we must be careful with consensus thinking and "unquestionable" science, but the record high temps are a concern.**
- 2026-07-31 — Cumulative area burnt by wildfires remains low Recent news articles have highlighted wildfires in Europe, suggesting a "new normal" due to climate change. However, 3rd party data show that wildfires in Europe in 2026 are currently the lowest since at least 2012.
- 2026-07-29 — Southern Europe burns Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, warming at more than twice the global average. Western Europe recorded its hottest June on record.
- 2026-07-15 — The Science of Extreme Event Attribution New technology advances have allowed scientists to more closely associate specific weather events with climate changes. This report could be used to steer policy debates based on more recent events.